Analyzing the Impacts of Climate change on Hydropower Generation in Pakistan

Among the major sources of energy supply systems, hydroelectric power plants are the most common with numerous advantages such as clean, renewable, low-cost, supply energy during peak hours, flexible and less environmental issues. The world electricity demand is immensely increasing at the rate of 9

Project Title

Analyzing the Impacts of Climate change on Hydropower Generation in Pakistan

Project Area of Specialization

Electrical/Electronic Engineering

Project Summary

Among the major sources of energy supply systems, hydroelectric power plants are the most common with numerous advantages such as clean, renewable, low-cost, supply energy during peak hours, flexible and less environmental issues. The world electricity demand is immensely increasing at the rate of 93% in next 30 years, from 20.2 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2019 to 39 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2040, the role of hydropower resources is tremendously important, since they will be the major source of renewable energy in the future (US Energy Information Administration [US-EIA], 2013).

In Pakistan, energy crisis has been congesting an economic development for the past several years. Currently, Pakistan is facing an average demand and supply gap of 3000 MW. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2019–20, the installed electricity generation capacity reached 37,402 MW in 2020. The maximum total demand coming from residential and industrial estates stands at nearly 25,000 MW, whereas the transmission and distribution capacity is stalled at approximately 22,000 MW. This leads to a deficit of about 3,000 MW when the demand peaks. Hydropower is poised for a resurgence and will play a significant role in addressing this power deficit. In state of industry report 2020 it is mentioned that electricity generation from hydroelectric in Pakistan is 29% of total. With some studies it is estimated that the proportion of hydropower in the total electricity generation in Pakistan will increase to more than 40 percent by 2030.

Climate change is one of the central issues facing by people nowadays. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), it is concluded that man-made global warming is caused mainly by greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO2.. The main reason of this greenhouse gas emission is due to consumption of fossil fuel. In Pakistan, this greenhouse gas emission in line with the government’s economic growth strategy will be more than double by 2020 and increase by around 14 times by 2050. To reduce these greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuels consumptions, many countries have developed renewable technologies such as Hydropower.

The impact of global warming is characterized by changes in temperature and precipitation which affected the hydrological system in many rivers. These two changes in hydrological system will influence the water availability to generate electricity. Hence, the purpose of this research is to investigates the impact of climate changes on hydropower generation in Pakistan and observe its effects on the production of energy.

Project Objectives

The Aims of this research are:

1. To develop a climate sensitive model of the hydro power plant.

2. To study the effect of change in temperature and/or precipitation on the plant operation.

Project Implementation Method

For this research, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) is selected due to its simplicity and easiness. WEAP is a unique water resources and planning software where it simulates hydrologic pattern based on climatic inputs such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and wind speed. This research is conducted based on historical data on climatology (precipitation/temperature).

The stepwise process of this study is shown in the following diagram:

 Validation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                  

 Data Collection

 Scenario(s)

GIS layer Development

Modelling of Power Station

 Report Writing

Benefits of the Project

Pakistan has been listed in the top 10 countries affected by the climate change. Increased average global temperature and reduced precipitation due to climate change is going to affect the hydropower generation in Pakistan adversely which needs to be accounted for, to aid in better future planning and policy making.

Following are the benefits of this research

• A Climate sensitive effective model will have formed that help us to predict the behavior of climate on different scales.
• Effect of temperature and precipitation will have analyzed that tell us that how these factors will impact on hydropower generation.
• Climate action will have interpreted the effect the electricity generation by hydropower plants.
• To investigate the production of energy weather having the climate impacts the production increases or decreases.
• If the production decreases due to the impact of climate issue, then how to mitigate this.

Technical Details of Final Deliverable

The expected results of this research will be:

• The effect of climate action decreases the electricity generation on hydropower plants in Pakistan because of the global warming. Increased average global temperature and reduced precipitation due to climate change is going to affect the hydropower generation in Pakistan.
• The simulation result indicates that production of energy decreases while developing the scenarios. 
• Analyzation showed that a prioritization of demands will be necessary in the area in the near future for the purpose of sustainability of water resources, due to climate change impacts.

Final Deliverable of the Project

Software System

Core Industry

Energy

Other Industries

Core Technology

Others

Other Technologies

Sustainable Development Goals

Climate Action

Required Resources

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