Comparison between Observed and Predicted MUF over Pakistan

Project Title

Comparison between Observed and Predicted MUF over Pakistan

Project Area of Specialization Information & Communication TechnologyProject Summary

The Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) refers to the highest possible frequency value in the High Frequency (HF) band (3-30) MHz that is influenced by the given ionospheric conditions and is used to transmit data over a particular path using sky-wave propagation with relatively little power consumption and low-cost equipment. It also helps in implementing an environmental-friendly system for communication as no space debris (eg-satellite remnants) is left in space. MUF(3000)F2 is a worldwide used parameter, it is the Maximum Usable Frequency value used for a transmission range of 3000km on the Earth’s surface. It has vast applications of communication in numerous fields such as in remote areas, in military, marine, and civil areas, communication at times of deadly chaos (like earthquakes, landslides, flooding, hurricane, typhoons, tsunami, etc), and at times when the satellite communication fails (e.g. on-orbit failure of Hudges HS601-model satellite due to the loss of their processors), causing communications blackout which in turn cuts off all the internet connections and makes cellular networks dysfunctional and useless. It is also be used for confidential data transmission between two points without third-party intervention.

As the values of MUF(3000)F2 fluctuate due to the variable nature of the Solar Activity, time, and geographic location of the transceiver (transmitter and receiver), thus there is a compelling urge to predict the values of MUF(3000)F2 for effective and economical communication. Our project is focused on the analysis and comparison of the real-time values of MUF(3000)F2 for Solar Cycle 21/22 (obtained from ionosondes with the collaboration of Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) at three different stations in Pakistan) with that of the predicted values of MUF(3000)F2 obtained from Global MUF prediction models, namely International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program (VOCAP), Ionospheric Communications Enhanced Profile Analysis and Circuit Prediction Program (ICE PAC), The Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System (ASAPS), and REC533.

Results of the analysis and comparison will not only be used to determine the “best-fit model” that can predict the most suitable values of MUF(3000)F2 over different latitudes in Pakistan and most of the South Asian regions but will also further pave the path for the development of a model that can predict the approximately accurate values of MUF(3000)F2 in the region of Pakistan and assist researchers towards most accurate MUF(3000)F2 modeling, marked by the stupendous development in effective radio communication, for the first time in Pakistan.

Project Objectives

The objectives of our project are:

1. Determine the best-fit model for MUF value prediction over Pakistan by a) Analyzing and comparing the observed data for the solar cycle 21/22 with the predicted ones from the Global models. b)Identifying the best-fit model for Pakistan from the results of the comparison and Data Analysis.
2.  Develop a model for the prediction of approximately accurate values of MUF over Pakistan.

Project Implementation Method

The methods employed in our project include data processing using Python and MATLAB. The data processing includes extracting data, analyzing the data, visualizing the data, and comparing the data.

Steps to be followed:

1. The dataset of the observed values of MUF(3000)F2 for solar cycle 21/22 (obtained from the collaboration with SUPARCO from ionosondes at three different stations in Pakistan) will be analyzed and visualized using Python and MATLAB.
2. MUF(3000)F2 value is highly fluctuating due to the variability in the ionospheric layer and is the product of the critical frequency “foF2” of the F2 layer of the ionosphere and the propagation factor. The propagation factor is significantly less variable than the critical frequency. The values of both the parameters will be extracted for each day in Solar Cycle 21/22 from each of the Global models that include: International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program (VOCAP), Ionospheric Communications Enhanced Profile Analysis, and Circuit Prediction Program (ICE PAC), The Advanced Stand Alone Prediction System (ASAPS), and REC533
3. The data extracted is then analyzed and visualized using Python and MATLAB.
4. The behavior of each data set from the models will then be compared with that of the observed one.
5. Conclusions will be made based on the extent of deviation from the observed values. The best-fit model will thus be determined.
6. From the behavior of the observed data, we will develop a model to predict the approximately accurate values of MUF(3000)F2 over Pakistan.

Benefits of the Project

Some of the benefits that will be achieved after the implementation of this project are:

• Effective communication: can take place on time as MUF(3000)F2 values will be present beforehand, predicted from the developed model.
• Reliable means of communication: Communication system that should be kept as a backup in cases of emergencies like satellite communication blackout and other chaotic situations.
• Secure means of communication: System of communication providing secure means of confidential data transfer without third-party intervention.
• Environmental friendly system for communication: No need for enormous amounts of raw materials for satellite manufacturing, thus no space debris (dysfunctional satellite parts) and inturn reduced chances of satellite collision and thus approximately no chances of satellites falling back to Earth onto populated areas.
• Budget-friendly system for communication: low-cost equipment and little power consumption in this communication system.
• Error rate reduction: Prediction of approximate accurate values of MUF using the developed Model.
• Advancement in the field of Research: Our project will assist reachers in “Effective MUF Modeling”.

Technical Details of Final Deliverable

At the end of our project, we expect to have our final deliverables as:

• The processed form of data extracted for MUF values from each model for Solar Cycle 21/22 will be readily available for other researchers in the field of Radio Communication.
• Graphs and Mathematical Results of comparison between the observed data with the extracted ones from the Global models.
• Numeric values of deviations/percentage error of model(s) extracted frequency values from the observed ones.
• Best-fit model(s) and mathematical formulations obtained as a result of these comparisons.
• Source Code for a well-developed MUF Prediction Model from the observed data.
• Thesis/Final report of all information used from previous research work, the research gap, objective of our research and analysis, the methods employed, the results obtained, etc.

Final Deliverable of the Project Software SystemCore Industry TelecommunicationOther Industries Education , IT , Transportation , Media , Security , Telecommunication Core Technology Artificial Intelligence(AI)Other Technologies Others, Big Data, Clean TechSustainable Development Goals Decent Work and Economic Growth, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, Climate Action, Partnerships to achieve the GoalRequired Resources

Item Name	Type	No. of Units	Per Unit Cost (in Rs)	Total (in Rs)
			Total in (Rs)	76290
GPU(ASUS Dual Radeon RX 5500 XT EVO Video Graphics Card)	Equipment	1	34500	34500
HP EliteDisplay E243 23.8-inch Monitor (1FH47A8)	Equipment	1	31800	31800
Transport, stationary, printing and binding	Miscellaneous	270	37	9990